Revisiting Localised Conflict, Transboundary Water and Socio-economic Condition of Coastal Dwellers in the Cross River Basin, Nigeria

Abstract

The management of transboundary water resources in Sub-Saharan Africa remains a complex challenge, frequently characterized by “hydropolitical” tensions that transcend simple resource scarcity. This study investigates the nexus between localized conflict, transboundary water dynamics, and the socio-economic conditions of coastal dwellers within the Cross River Basin, Nigeria, with a specific focus on the high-tension Calabar-Itu corridor. Utilizing a convergent parallel mixed-methods design, the research integrated quantitative data from 160 household questionnaires across eight adjoining communities—including Itu Mbonuso, Oku-Iboku, and Mbiabo—with qualitative insights from key informant interviews (KII) and household-level interviews (HLI). The findings reveal a catastrophic correlation between hydrological shifts and systemic poverty, particularly where the river’s lateral migration serves as a contested administrative boundary. Results indicate that high-impact hotspots like Ikot Offiong and Obot Akpan experience livelihood disruptions as high as 88% and annual income losses of up to 60%, signaling that the "cost of conflict" has manifested in communal clashes, making infrastructural development impossible in the region. Thematic analysis exposes a “Living Boundary” paradox, where static administrative lines fail to account for dynamic hydrological changes, resulting in a perpetual insecurity among artisanal fishers, investors and the entire inhabitants. The study concludes that the basin suffers from "Economic stagnation," driven not by a lack of resources, but by administrative vacuums and a lack of “paradiplomacy” involving traditional institutions. To mitigate these conflicts, the study recommends a radical departure from the status quo, advocating for the establishment of Joint Resource Zones, the integration of indigenous peace-making mechanisms, and the deployment of AI-driven remote sensing to provide objective data on river migration. Ultimately, fostering “proactive hydro-solidarity” is essential to transforming the Cross River from a site of communal friction into a stable conduit for regional socio-economic development.