Water Bodies Depletion in Naogaon Sadar, Bangladesh: A Spatiotemporal Analysis Emphasizing LULC as the Most Influential Factor Using GIS and Predictive Modelling

https://doi.org/10.46610/JoWRPS.2025.v010i03.001

Abstract

Water resources are crucial to agriculture, biodiversity, and livelihoods for the communities in semi-arid regions, and important water resources face serious threats from climate change and rapid urbanization. This study assessed the temporal and spatial impacts of land use land cover (LULC) on surface water bodies in Naogoan Sadar, Bangladesh, from 1999 to 2024 and predicted trends to 2029. Remote sensing analyses relied on Landsat satellite imagery at 30 meters of spatial resolution; each LULC classification was performed using the Maximum Likelihood algorithm, and future predictions were developed using a CA-Markov model. The study found a 48.32% decrease in water bodies over 25 years, with 31.73% of water bodies converted to built-up areas. Overall, agricultural land saw a decrease of 35% as well, and the bare soil transition could be attributed to urbanization. These results suggest a projected loss of 60.4% of surface water bodies by 2029, due to uncontrolled urban development. These results suggest that unsustainable land practices could be responsible for the degradation of water resources. The study recommends integrated policy planning for sustainable water resource management, including zoning regulations and RS-GIS monitoring. Other recommendations include the restoration of wetlands. The study brings out a shared issue related to urban growth with regard to environmental care, and this helps in taking proper steps in the affected parts of the world.