Applications of Cross-Impact Analysis in Decision-Making in the Maritime Sector of Nigeria

Abstract

This work focused on the application of Cross-Impact Analysis to the smooth execution of projects in the maritime sector of Nigeria. Nine events which can affect the execution of projects were identified and CIA was applied to determine the probabilities of occurrence of the different events. It was also used to determine how the occurrence and the non-occurrence of each event affect the occurrence of other events. A computer program was developed for the cross-impact analysis, especially the determination of calibrated probabilities, which are more realistic probabilities of the occurrence of events. Sensitivity analysis was also carried out to see how the occurrence of some of the events affects other events by changing the values of their original initial probabilities. Data were collected from experts in the regulatory agency of the sector, NIMASA and the federal ministry of Ttransportation. It was observed that oil theft has the highest probability of occurrence of 0.9 while inability of NIMASA to fund projects has the lowest probability of occurrence of 0.4. It was also observed that the occurrence of a change in government has the greatest impact on project completion time, with the potential of increasing the probability of an increase in project completion time by about 22%. The events that affect the execution of projects affect each other to different magnitudes. If the project completion time is longer than planned, the probability that the cost of the project will increase goes up by about 32%.