A Review of Climate Change Impact Studies on Futures

https://doi.org/10.46610/JoRAAS.2025.v010i02.004

Abstract

Climate change threatens natural resources, infrastructure, and human systems with high levels of risk, calling for strong methodologies for impact assessment and adaptation strategy design. This paper overviews and synthesizes learning from five methodological approaches to climate change impact assessment in various sectors present a risk-based approach that integrates probabilistic scenarios, expert judgment, and uncertainty analysis through the application of Monte Carlo simulation and Value-at-Risk tools. Illustrate the use of standardized indices (SPI, SPEI, SGI) merged with Regional Climate Models (RCMs) under RCP 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios for the estimation of groundwater drought hazards with the importance of evaporation transpiration as a function of temperature in long-term projection. Address the essential problem of model choice in climate effect research and suggest using the proximity-weighted mean squared error (PWMSE) criterion to guarantee models' reliability under future projected climates, especially in evaluating damage functions for agriculture. In addition to these quantitative methods, use an ecosystem services-based framework for risk assessment, based on ISO 14091 guidelines, for coastal Natura 2000 habitats, incorporating hazard, exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity, with stakeholder participation. Together, these methods underscore probabilistic risk management, regionalized climate projections, sound model choice, and ecosystem-based analyses. Individually and collectively, they constitute a unified toolbox for civil engineering research, facilitating adaptive planning, sustainable design, and adaptation measures to counteract the diverse effects of climate change on water resources, infrastructure, and ecosystems.