Spatio-Temporal Analysis of Crime, Rainfall and Temperature in Abraka and Its Environs, Delta State, Nigeria

Abstract

This study examined the spatial–temporal distribution of crime in Abraka, Delta State, Nigeria, with particular emphasis on the influence of weather variables, namely rainfall and temperature, on crime occurrence. The study employed Geographic Information Systems (GIS) and statistical techniques to analyze crime records obtained from the Abraka Divisional Police Station and meteorological data collected between 1992 and 2014. Crime types examined included assault, theft, fraud, rape, burglary, murder, and character deformation. Pearson product-moment correlation, Analysis of Variance (ANOVA), nearest-neighbor analysis, hotspot analysis, kernel density estimation, and directional distribution techniques were used. The study found that there exists a strong relationship between rainfall and temperature on crime occurrences.

Furthermore, crime propensity tends to be high during the dry season and low during the wet season. In the spatial analysis of crime, the study revealed that crime propensity is high in developed areas, places of human habitation, and areas with a high presence of social and economic activities. It is therefore hoped that, when planning crime-control operations in the study area, the aforementioned factors will be considered to ensure success.