Development of a Predictive Model for Dredging Operations

Abstract

This study focuses on assessing sand production in the Niger Delta region of Nigeria by examining four dredging locations from two different firms. As urban development escalates, the necessity for sand for construction, river dredging, and various other applications is rising, making dredging operations increasingly prevalent. An analysis revealed four significant categories of grain sizes organized according to the output from each site. Theoretical evaluations were conducted with a focus on production costs and the output rates of each dredging site, factoring in elements such as the dredger's capability, operational hours, pipe dimensions, and digging depth, among others. A predictive model was developed using the MATLAB application designer to foresee future dredging activities based on the collected data from these Niger Delta sites. This application model was utilized to forecast potential dredging variables utilizing different grain types, including fine sand, coarse sand, medium grain, and gravel. The findings indicated a cumulative production volume of 971,444 m³ alongside an anticipated profit of ₦ 513,585,446 for fine sand; 703,986 m³ with a profit of ₦510,126,507 for coarse sand; 729,716 m³ yielding a profit of ₦592,386,149 for medium grain; and 394,070 m³ resulting in a profit of ₦363,582,627 for gravel (10mm). This information will assist both current and prospective investors in Nigeria’s dredging sector in comprehending the effects of dredging operations and the factors influencing sand production.