Multi-Criteria Analysis of Solar Energy Expansion Pathways in Bangladesh for Achieving Net-Zero Emission Targets

Abstract

Achieving net-zero emission targets has become a critical priority for Bangladesh, driven by increasing energy demand, climate vulnerability, and dependence on fossil fuel imports. Although solar energy offers significant potential for decarbonization, multiple expansion pathways exist, each with distinct trade-offs related to cost, land use, reliability, and policy feasibility. The lack of a structured framework to evaluate these alternatives creates challenges for effective energy planning. This study addresses this gap by applying a multi-criteria decision-making approach to identify the most suitable solar energy expansion pathway for Bangladesh. The Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (TOPSIS) is employed to evaluate five alternatives: utility-scale solar, rooftop solar, floating solar, agrivoltaics systems, and hybrid solar systems with storage. A comprehensive set of criteria encompassing technical, economic, environmental, and socio-political dimensions is considered, with equal weighting to ensure methodological transparency and reproducibility. The results indicate that hybrid solar systems with storage rank highest, followed by rooftop solar systems, highlighting the critical importance of reliability and land-use efficiency in Bangladesh’s energy transition. Utility-scale solar, while significant in capacity, is constrained by land and economic factors, whereas emerging technologies such as floating solar and agrivoltaics show long-term potential but currently face implementation challenges. The findings provide actionable insights for policymakers, emphasising the need to prioritise hybrid and distributed solar systems, strengthen policy frameworks, and invest in grid modernisation and energy storage to support a sustainable pathway toward net-zero emissions.