Indian Stock Price Prediction Analysis Using Technical Indicators (MACD, RSI and 10-20 EMA Crossover)
Keywords:
Exponential moving average, MACD, Price volume analysis, RSI, Stock market, Stock price prediction, Technical analysis, Technical indicatorsAbstract
In financial markets, forecasting changes in stock prices has long been a crucial field of study and practice. Technical indicators are now an essential component of algorithmic and analytical trading techniques due to the growing availability of market data and computing tools. Using three well-known technical indicators the 10-20 Exponential Moving Average (EMA) crossover, the Relative Strength Index (RSI), and Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) this research offers an in-depth analysis of stock price movements in the Indian equities market. To determine trend reversals, entry-exit points, and momentum shifts in a subset of Indian equities, the study intends to assess the predictive accuracy and dependability of these indicators.
We use historical daily price data from NSE-listed stocks (like TITAN and EICHER MOTORS) and apply the 10-20 EMA crossover to identify possible buy/sell signals based on short-term price movements, the RSI to evaluate overbought and oversold market conditions, and the MACD to measure momentum and trend direction. Trading View chart patterns, signal crossings, and momentum oscillations are used in a quantitative and visual analysis. Backtesting is another method used in the study to confirm indicator performance under actual market conditions.
Compared to using any one indicator alone, our results indicate that combining MACD, RSI, and EMA crossings offers a more reliable signal confirmation framework, increasing the accuracy of trade decisions. Notably, we see that rising price movements are frequently preceded by bullish crossovers in MACD backed by RSI values between 40 and 60 and a 10-EMA crossing above the 20-EMA. Similarly, when the 10-EMA drops below the 20-EMA, the RSI goes below 50, and the MACD crosses below the signal line, bearish situations appear.
The combined use of MACD, RSI, and 10-20 EMA crossover improves the accuracy of stock price prediction models and can be successfully used to short- to medium-term trading strategies in the Indian stock market, according to the paper's conclusion.
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