Climate Change Prediction in the North–Eastern Area of Bangladesh: A Downscale Modeling Approach

Abstract

Climate change can significantly impact regional hydrology and human and animal lives. To
develop accurate projections of climate change, hydrological models rely on reliable
meteorological variables. Generally, a climate model is a computer-based mathematical program
based on physics, fluid motion, thermodynamics, and chemistry equations that are used to develop
future projections. This paper uses statistical downscale modeling (SDSM) to predict climate
change in Bangladesh's northeastern region using rainfall and temperature data from 2001–2015.
The study uses data from Dhaka, Mymenshing, Sylhet, Comilla, and Srimangal as a baseline for
2025, 2045, and 2065 climate changes. The study result indicates that Comilla experienced a
340.253 mm increase in maximum rainfall in 2065, while Srimangal experienced a 32.775 mm
decrease in 2045. Dhaka experiences the highest mean annual temperature increase of 1.7426°C
in 2065 and the lowest mean annual temperature increase of 1.6581°C, respectively. These
maximum and minimum temperature characteristics impacting climatic degradation are found in
2065, indicating a potential threat to modern civilization compared to 2025 and 2045.